Logan's Run - Opening Gross Analysis

March is off to an incredible start for box office in 2017. To get an idea of what we are looking at it’s only March 12th. So far the overall gross for the month, according to the wonderful Box Office Mojo, is $259,396,912 million and the biggest movie of the month hasn’t even opened yet in Beauty and the Beast.  Now to get a little context the final tally for the month of March in 2016 was an insane 1 billion and change, which included huge titles like Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice and Zootopia. So there is still plenty of room to grow but I think it’s very possible that this year could overtake that billion dollar gross once it’s all said and done. This week Logan has to square off with the biggest baddest ape of all Kong which at this writing has apparently grossed over 61 million and taken the top spot at number 1 this weekend.  So where does that leave our old bedraggled X-Man?

Pencils by Alex Yi

Logan got dropped to 2nd place with an estimated 37 million dollar take. Not too shabby given the competition.  It dropped about 60% or so which is within the parameters for superhero movies. It’s hovering at about $152 million at the moment. Honestly this kind of release schedule ends up hurting both studios in many ways. If Warner Brothers had some distance from Logan who the hell knows how much further north those estimates would actually be. And for Logan I think their second week would have most certainly been stronger without the giant gorilla in the room. The critics have been gushing about the movie declaring it the greatest superhero movie ever. I saw it last weekend myself but I’ll put some of my thoughts about the movie later this week. Today is about box office and the question is, how close did I get to calling it? 

I gave an estimate between 80 and 90 million for the weekend. The actual opening box office was 88.4 million. Not bad I must say, totally within the margins. The question is how much does the Rated R status affect Logan? If this were a comedy with similar critical praise it could have made more. Look at Deadpool as the example which cleared over 132 million. While Logan has serious critical praise I have heard some rumblings, small they may be, that Logan was a bit too slow compared to most superhero fare.  I’m always inclined to believe it minimizes the base of younger kids that would love to see this movie but can’t due to the R. It’s hard to prove in either case, it’s more of a hunch. Time will tell if Logan reaches my lifetime goal around 225 million. I have a feeling that despite the drop it still has legs and audiences will keep it floating for at least a little bit longer.

Next up on the docket is Guardians of the Galaxy vol 2 on May 5th. Things are going to get interesting as I will also be looking at whether or not Superhero fatigue is a real thing or is it something  haters come up with because they don’t happen to like this genre. I’m inclined toward the latter but let’s revisit in a couple of months.  

Logan - Gross Analysis

Team Weapon X - Drawn by Alex Yi 

This week’s comic book release is Logan, distributed by 20th Century Fox and it is the third, and last, film in the Wolverine series or at least to star Hugh Jackman and Patrick Stewart. Last time we took a crack at Lego Batman where I was over about 13 to 18 millon. Not too shabby, but I underestimated the kinky sex movie Fifty Shades 2. Sex still sells and clearly there was a ton of it in that movie. Go figure.

So going into this week, March 3rd, you have four movies entering the field: Logan, The Shack, Before I Fall and Table 19. None of these movies are expected to or will directly compete with Logan. It’s going to be number one without question. Internal tracking for the film, or first choice, is in the 20s. According to Fandango pre-sale ticket prices for Logan it has already surpassed early sales for all previous X-Men ensemble films, not including Deadpool. That’s an impressive start. Like Deadpool Logan is Rated R, which will be the first X-Men related franchise to put up that hard R. It worked for Deadpool because they brought the raunch the laughs and the bloody action. Logan however is much more serious. It will be interesting to see if it can put up similar numbers. On Valentine’s Day weekend last year Deadpool pulled in an insane $132 million on it’s opening weekend. For some comparison the last movie with Jackman as the lead in the Wolverine in July of 2013 grossed only $53 million and topping off at $132 million domestic. Wow for its lifetime Wolverine made almost the exact number of Deadpool’s opening weekend. The trailers for Logan have been fantastic, and this film will be incredible but I just don't see it beating Deadpool's opening number. The dark and broody tone could keep it from reaching that kind of goal. But records were made to be broken.

I’m going to put my estimate of Logan between 80-90 million opening weekend. X-Men: Age of Apocalypse grossed only $65.7 million opening weekend and topped off at $155 million. So if Logan is a solid film and the clamoring for Wolverine to go Berserker in bloody Rated R is a legit thing for audiences then I could be seriously underestimating this opening number. Whatever it is they are going to need it too cause it’s probably all downhill no matter the fantastic 93% score on Rotten Tomatoes. You got Kong: Skull Island next week and the Behemoth Beauty and the Beast the week after that. All in I’m thinking $200-225 million all in. Snikt-Snikt!