Spider-Man: Homecoming Gross Analysis

The Summer Box Office is finally starting to heat up after a somewhat lackluster late Winter-Spring. There were a lot of duds in there from Life to Alien: Covenant and Baywatch, as well as King Arthur, Ghost in the Shell, The Great Wall and Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales. It’s clear that people want quality over quantity. Which is why Wonder Woman, Baby Driver, Get Out and Guardians 2 all scored big at the box office. Which brings us to this week’s release, Spider-Man: Homecoming. I had a chance to see the movie a bit earlier, and I’m not parsing my words here when I say - BEST SPIDER-MAN MOVIE - so far. And when I say BEST I mean, in my humble opinion, it rivals the best of Tobey McGuire’s Spidey. If you’re a Spidey fan through and through you probably agree that Tom Holland balances the best parts of Peter Parker and Spider-Man into the complete package. Now I promise to delve in on another post about the specifics about the movie, but today I want to take a crack at guessing the opening box office for Spider-Man and what I think it might make all in.

Let’s start with the tracking. In film distribution every film that gets released appears on tracking reports about two to three weeks before its release. Spider-Man, for instance, came on tracking at around a 15 or so and is hovering around a 24 currently, the week of the release. The tricky part about tracking is that it represents polling for first choice by the consumer. If you have a lot of movies in the field either already on screen or coming out in a week or two it can potentially take away points from any film. Because of high numbers for Wonder Woman and Despicable Me, and now War of the Planet of the Apes, it’s possible that the tracking doesn’t reflect for this week the true first choice. So it’s possible that Spider-Man very well could be under-inflated and actually be higher. It’s all kind of a gamble. Early predictions have Spider-Man opening to right around 100 million for the weekend. Not too bad, and if you were to solely base it on tracking it’s a fairly conservative number. But I don’t think that’s where this film is. I’m going to take it a bit higher. I think because the film is currently fresh at 92% on Rotten Tomatoes and is garnering much early love from fans that I think it’s going to reach about 125-130 for the weekend. Which would be an improvement from Amazing Spider-Man 2 back in 2014 which opened to 91.6 million.

Now it is possible that some of the wind in Spidey’s sails has dwindled as this is the third incarnation of the superhero in as many years. But I would say Captain America: Civil War, which introduced this new Spidey last year is proof that Spider-Man is still a major draw. Spider-Man was considered one of the best parts of Civil War and I think, for fans, showed that Spidey would make a huge impression in the MCU (Marvel Cinematic Universe.) This is also the perfect timing for a film of this type, a giant blockbuster, in the heart of summer after two very equally successful and well done Super Hero blockbusters in Wonder Woman and Guardians of the Galaxy 2. I think it helps Spidey that other closer big budgeted flicks like Transformers and The Mummy underperformed. With strong dramas like Apes and Dunkirk soon to follow it could also keep Spidey afloat as those two films seem fantastic, but also very bleak. Apes should be a big grosser but I think with the dark tone it will have a much more limited audience than Spidey. The same might be said about Dunkirk as well as it has already garnered mixed reviews. War movies are always tough especially in the summer but what makes this one even more difficult, at least in the states, is the very British narrative. These types of films usually do very minimal in the U.S., so it will be a testament to director Chris Nolan if Dunkirk makes Inception or Interstellar money. So to sum up, I feel confident that Spidey will have the proper legs to get it to a strong 325-340 million all in.

Logan's Run - Opening Gross Analysis

March is off to an incredible start for box office in 2017. To get an idea of what we are looking at it’s only March 12th. So far the overall gross for the month, according to the wonderful Box Office Mojo, is $259,396,912 million and the biggest movie of the month hasn’t even opened yet in Beauty and the Beast.  Now to get a little context the final tally for the month of March in 2016 was an insane 1 billion and change, which included huge titles like Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice and Zootopia. So there is still plenty of room to grow but I think it’s very possible that this year could overtake that billion dollar gross once it’s all said and done. This week Logan has to square off with the biggest baddest ape of all Kong which at this writing has apparently grossed over 61 million and taken the top spot at number 1 this weekend.  So where does that leave our old bedraggled X-Man?

Pencils by Alex Yi

Logan got dropped to 2nd place with an estimated 37 million dollar take. Not too shabby given the competition.  It dropped about 60% or so which is within the parameters for superhero movies. It’s hovering at about $152 million at the moment. Honestly this kind of release schedule ends up hurting both studios in many ways. If Warner Brothers had some distance from Logan who the hell knows how much further north those estimates would actually be. And for Logan I think their second week would have most certainly been stronger without the giant gorilla in the room. The critics have been gushing about the movie declaring it the greatest superhero movie ever. I saw it last weekend myself but I’ll put some of my thoughts about the movie later this week. Today is about box office and the question is, how close did I get to calling it? 

I gave an estimate between 80 and 90 million for the weekend. The actual opening box office was 88.4 million. Not bad I must say, totally within the margins. The question is how much does the Rated R status affect Logan? If this were a comedy with similar critical praise it could have made more. Look at Deadpool as the example which cleared over 132 million. While Logan has serious critical praise I have heard some rumblings, small they may be, that Logan was a bit too slow compared to most superhero fare.  I’m always inclined to believe it minimizes the base of younger kids that would love to see this movie but can’t due to the R. It’s hard to prove in either case, it’s more of a hunch. Time will tell if Logan reaches my lifetime goal around 225 million. I have a feeling that despite the drop it still has legs and audiences will keep it floating for at least a little bit longer.

Next up on the docket is Guardians of the Galaxy vol 2 on May 5th. Things are going to get interesting as I will also be looking at whether or not Superhero fatigue is a real thing or is it something  haters come up with because they don’t happen to like this genre. I’m inclined toward the latter but let’s revisit in a couple of months.