Last week I posted about the 2017 upcoming comic book movies and this week I wanted to take it a little bit further. I work for a distribution company by day and one of the things I try to do is work out the viability of the film and what happens when you throw other movies into the mix. What does the movie gross in Winter versus Spring or Summer. What I'd like to do is take a look at these movies and do some basic market analysis and then once the films come out I'll do another post on how close to the actual number I got. So since Lego Batman comes out this week I want to go over the analysis for that film this week and what I think it might do over the weekend.
I know it's going to sound funny as I say it but, Lego Batman is this year's Deadpool. That's right you heard me, of course it's not a Rated R stabfest of blood but it's capitalizing on the same weekend with a superhero property and not just any superhero property it's Batman and also it's Lego. To give you an idea how big Lego actually is right now, in 2015 Lego had a shortage in product because demand was so damn high they couldn't keep up crafting the sets. When you think about how massive Lego is and that they had this problem less than two years ago. It's not hard to imagine how insane people get over those little blocks. My son included.
Deadpool opened on Feb. 12th last year and opened to 132 million dollars. Which is a crazy number to imagine not in summer and with a Rated R movie, which would have a much more limited audience. Of course Deadpool is in no way comparable to a kid friendly Lego movie with Batman, but it establishes the potential for the weekend. If people are motivated they could spend big on this weekend. The movie we want to look at that is comparable is Lego Movie which also came out in February. Feb. 7, 2014. It opened to 69 million. So my estimation based on the crowded marketplace. You've got 50 Shades Darker and John Wick. That starts to shrink that Deadpool pie. All three movies are counter programming so that's good for their respective audiences but as I said I think it shrinks the market share. So based on these factors I peg Lego Batman banking about 65 - 70 million for the number 1 spot. So we'll see next week if I'm right or way off the mark.