Logan - Gross Analysis

Team Weapon X - Drawn by Alex Yi 

This week’s comic book release is Logan, distributed by 20th Century Fox and it is the third, and last, film in the Wolverine series or at least to star Hugh Jackman and Patrick Stewart. Last time we took a crack at Lego Batman where I was over about 13 to 18 millon. Not too shabby, but I underestimated the kinky sex movie Fifty Shades 2. Sex still sells and clearly there was a ton of it in that movie. Go figure.

So going into this week, March 3rd, you have four movies entering the field: Logan, The Shack, Before I Fall and Table 19. None of these movies are expected to or will directly compete with Logan. It’s going to be number one without question. Internal tracking for the film, or first choice, is in the 20s. According to Fandango pre-sale ticket prices for Logan it has already surpassed early sales for all previous X-Men ensemble films, not including Deadpool. That’s an impressive start. Like Deadpool Logan is Rated R, which will be the first X-Men related franchise to put up that hard R. It worked for Deadpool because they brought the raunch the laughs and the bloody action. Logan however is much more serious. It will be interesting to see if it can put up similar numbers. On Valentine’s Day weekend last year Deadpool pulled in an insane $132 million on it’s opening weekend. For some comparison the last movie with Jackman as the lead in the Wolverine in July of 2013 grossed only $53 million and topping off at $132 million domestic. Wow for its lifetime Wolverine made almost the exact number of Deadpool’s opening weekend. The trailers for Logan have been fantastic, and this film will be incredible but I just don't see it beating Deadpool's opening number. The dark and broody tone could keep it from reaching that kind of goal. But records were made to be broken.

I’m going to put my estimate of Logan between 80-90 million opening weekend. X-Men: Age of Apocalypse grossed only $65.7 million opening weekend and topped off at $155 million. So if Logan is a solid film and the clamoring for Wolverine to go Berserker in bloody Rated R is a legit thing for audiences then I could be seriously underestimating this opening number. Whatever it is they are going to need it too cause it’s probably all downhill no matter the fantastic 93% score on Rotten Tomatoes. You got Kong: Skull Island next week and the Behemoth Beauty and the Beast the week after that. All in I’m thinking $200-225 million all in. Snikt-Snikt!